If You Want To End Homelessness, Give People A Home

“Homelessness is illegal. In my city no one is homeless although there are an increasing number of criminals living on the street. It was smart to turn an abandoned class into a criminal class, sometimes people feel sorry for the down and outs, they never feel sorry for criminals, it has been a great stabilizer.”
–  Jeanette Winterson

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Image Source: M J Richardson, CC-BY-SA. The Social Bite Village in Granton, Edinburgh

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the difference between ‘good’ policies and ‘easy’ policies. There are some ideas out there that politicians find very easy to do, regardless of whether they are good or bad. And some that politicians find very hard to do no matter how much good they’d do.

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is an excellent example of this. As a paper exercise, it looks fairly straightforward. Just find out where everyone is, identify a means of paying everyone and then just pay everyone a certain amount of money regardless of whether they ‘need’ it or not.

It has been shown dozens of times now that these kinds of unconditional cash payments work. They reduce all of the negative markers of poverty, they do it more effectively than ‘means tested’ alternatives, and they do so so effectively that several recent pilots have found that the money granted in the UBI was less than the cost of ‘fixing’ the poverty caused by not having a UBI.

This is a massively ‘good’ policy but it’s not an ‘easy’ one. The challenges of unwinding the existing welfare system – and all of its deliberately punitive negatives – is extremely difficult in the sense that if you happen to miss a month between someone’s last Universal Credit payment and their first UBI payment, then that person could suffer extreme hardship.

It’s hard in the sense of identifying everyone who should be paid and how to pay them – including people who don’t have bank accounts or stable addresses or who may have their finances constrained for any number of reasons. It’s also hard in the political sense that the first reaction from too many who would reach to oppose a UBI is “Why should they get something for nothing?”.

There’s another policy that is pretty much objectively proven now to result in overwhelming positive outcomes, has been shown to be cheaper than not doing it, and will almost certainly get that same final question in response to it – Housing First.

The principle of Housing First is that everyone, regardless of means or circumstance, should have a roof over their head. If someone finds themselves homeless, then this principle means that you don’t wait until support services have deemed whether or not they are worthy of support.

You don’t have the person jump through all kinds of paperwork to prove they need that support. You don’t make judgements on whether or not their lifestyle meets some kind of moral minimum before granting them support. Instead, the first thing you do is provide that person with a house that they can live in for as long as they want at no cost.

You can see the objection immediately. “I pay my rent/mortgage! I didn’t get my house for free!”. Well, I didn’t either, and nor have I had the misfortune of having to sleep rough but I know people who have and I’m well aware that any of us are only one bad day away from having it happen to us.

An excellent paper was published last week by the English think tank the Social Market Foundation that reviews Housing First pilot schemes in Scotland, England, Finland and Canada as part of a campaign to roll Housing First out to all rough sleepers in England and to, in effect, end homelessness.

“In Scotland, it was found that giving someone a ‘free’ house was about £10,000 per person, per year cheaper than just leaving them to sleep on the streets.”

The details of the schemes differ slightly – mostly in whether the house granted to the person is part of a ‘homeless village’ or whether the houses are embedded within communities, but all share the principle that a house is not a reward for taking part in the scheme nor are moral judgements around sobriety or substance use either a barrier to entering the scheme or a cause for eviction. In the words of the Finnish study “dwelling is the foundation on which the rest of life is put back together”.

The Scottish examples orbit around the Pathfinder programme that ran from 2019-2022 and found that while the average cost per participant in the programme was around £13,350 per year, the average cost of homelessness was estimated to be about £23,000 per person, per year. In other words, giving someone a ‘free’ house was about £10,000 per person, per year cheaper than just leaving them to sleep on the streets.

Similar levels of savings were found in the Finnish example (€15,000/£12,770 per person per year) and in the Canadian example ($CAD 4,850/£2,611 per person, per year). The SMF estimate that if Housing First was rolled out to as many rough sleepers as is currently possible (i.e. all those who aren’t barred from accessing public funds) then around 9,300 people would avoid sleeping rough and the public purse would save around £178 million.

On that subject of people who have no recourse to public funding, they do advocate that this should change. In all the current rancour about migration right now, you might have failed to spot a very obvious flaw in the current system for supporting asylum seekers. In the UK, asylum seekers – those who have claimed asylum from political repression or other forms of discrimination – are barred from working, are barred from many forms of housing and often don’t have their own funds to fall back on.

They are provided meagre housing by the state (getting a room, basic food and a £10 a week is not the High Living that those stoking xenophobia in Britain right now claim it is. If anyone wishes to dispute this point, I challenge them to live for six months on only the means provided to an asylum seeker and write a report of their experiences.)

But they are often turned out of that housing the moment their asylum claim is deemed legitimate and they become political refugees. Without work up till that point, with few support networks around them and without any other fall back plan – it’s no wonder that so many new refugees in Britain end up spending that first night of freedom – or an extended period afterwards – sleeping rough.

Outcomes for those passing through Housing First programmes have almost without exception delivered better outcomes for participants than the services available to them before they entered the programme. In the Scottish programme, more than 80% of participants were still in housing after two years. Not a single participant was evicted from the programme.

In the English pilot schemes, not one participant who left the programme ended up sleeping rough again within the first year. In all of the studies, the mental and physical health of participants improved, they were less likely to commit a crime and less likely to be the victims of a crime.

There appears to be almost no downside of a policy like Housing First and yet I still describe it as politically hard to do largely because of the political cost rather than the financial, moral and social cost of homelessness. This needs to be tackled head on. If it produces better outcomes than existing policies and is cheaper than those policies then it becomes a moral imperative to do that hard thing.

Scotland can end homelessness, end the negative stigma around people who lose the roof over their head, can increase social cohesion and heal some of the divides between us and can do it while saving money. All we need to do to make this happen is to give a homeless person a free house.

Opening and Securing the Digital Commons

“The open source community is an example of the evolutionary processes we have been describing. The rules of the community establish a framework for competition, but do not specify or plan that software will result.” – Yaneer Bar-Yam

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The Scottish Government needs to start talking about “real security” – one way it can start practicing it is by making it easier for Scottish public bodies, private companies and individuals to start using open source software instead of software that can be compromised or shut down by the US President.

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How “Me First” pensions make the UK’s debt more expensive

“With a roof over his head he had ceased to work, living off his pension and his wits, both hopelessly inadequate.” – Spike Milligan

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Image Source: Unsplash

This week has been an overwhelming one when it comes to trying to work out what news to focus on. If you’re a subscriber to Common Weal’s new Daily Briefings you’ll have received an email every weekday this week with a short article with our take on an important news story that day (If you haven’t subscribed – click here).

What you won’t have seen is that every day this week we’ve had to choose between three or four stories, each of which would been a shoe-in on any “normal” day. Even in well covered stories that you will have seen elsewhere, there are nuggets of information that caught our eye that were perhaps glossed over.

Earlier this week there was a strong set of headlines about the sudden spike in the UK’s debt interest. It’s not just that the UK’s total amount of public debt is still rising, but the amount that it pays in interest to service that debt is getting much more expensive. While interest rates have been rising across the developed world since the period of unusually low interest rates between the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2019 Covid pandemic, the UK is expected to end up with the highest debt interest rates in the G7 in the near future.

There are nuances around how much that will actually affect us. The surface level explanation is that if more public money goes into servicing debt interest then it means less to spend on other public services. A layer down though shows that not all debt interest is created equal.

Particularly, interest payments paid to service debt held by the Bank of England is booked as a revenue for the bank but, as the bank is a publicly owned Central Bank, all profits from the bank are paid back to the UK Government. So it’s a bit like you owning your own house but still insisting on paying rent to the owner. At best, it’s just shuffling money between different bank accounts.

Another layer down is to ask who owns the rest of the debt. Where bonds are held by people or companies overseas, that could be a problem because that represents public money being extracted out of the country. Where it’s held by UK companies, it might be less of a problem because those companies will be spending that money into the UK economy somehow – and thus you can think of the debt interest as acting more like a public subsidy towards those companies (whether or not they are companies that you want to see subsidised is a different question).

And then there are savers and investors. The interest your bank pays you on your savings (“What interest? What savings?”, I hear you say; I know., but that’s a different question too) is, from their perspective, the same “cost” to them as the debt interest is to the UK Government. We don’t see it as that though. We see it as a benefit of saving money. Their cost is our gain.

The same goes when your pension (“What pen…”, OK, I get it!) invests in government bonds. That debt interest payment is your savings growing into something you can spend in retirement to sustain a decent lifestyle.

But why have the UK’s interest rates shot up so much and why have they shot up higher than the rest of the G7?

Part of the explanation affects all of those nations – rebounds from the global pandemic, climate related supply issues, global conflicts and Trump’s trade wars all play a part – though the UK appears to be particularly exposed to some of them, especially – since Brexit – to Trump.

Other impacts are more local. Since Liz Truss and arguably before that, the UK has seen a slew of unstable and uncertain governments that have reduced confidence in the investors who want to buy UK debt, which pushes up the price they demand in order to bear the risk of a default. Some of it is that those investors are highly neoliberal and have seen the UK Government – particularly Starmer, Sunak and Johnston – as being not nearly neoliberal enough and thus are applying pressure for the UK to abandon what they see as “loose fiscal policy” and return to more Austerity.

But there’s one reason that was mentioned in passing in both the FT and BBC that caught my eye and that’s the changing patterns in those pension investments I just mentioned.

“An average British worker now retires with something like 11 different pension pots spread over 9 different pension providers.”

It used to be that most pensions were “defined benefit” pensions. That is, your workplace pension payment was based on some fraction of your salary at the point of retirement. This ensured that you could maintain your lifestyle at the point of retirement without too much of a drop in income and provided a stable financial floor for the rest of your life. But it was hard to manage for companies and pension funds, often led to headlines about companies creating shortfalls in their funds, and was difficult to extract a lot of profit from.

Over the course of the 1990s onwards, there was a push to move workers out of defined benefit pension schemes into defined contribution schemes. These are essentially just glorified bank savings accounts. You final pension is dependent not on your final salary but on how much you are able to save over the course of your working life.

In an age of fragmented careers and squeezed pay, this is proving difficult. In our book All of Our Futures, we found that an average British worker now retires with something like 11 different pension pots spread over nine different pension providers. The risk of pensioner poverty – or even destitution if your savings run out before you die – is very real.

Pertinent to this story though is the change in investor culture as a result of that shift. The thing about defined benefit pensions is that they demand long term planning and stability – which means aiming for long term investments. These can be in things like rentable property and assets (there’s a reason that the Canadian pension sector pension fund owns Aberdeen, Glasgow and Southhampton airports) but they also invest in government bonds – especially the very long payback bonds like 30 and 50 year bonds. They tend to have to invest with solidarity in mind and thus look to benefit all of their members in the long run.

Defined contribution schemes, however, are much more focused on an individualistic “Me First” push for a quick gain – particularly in the earlier years of a saver’s scheme (many DC schemes do tend to move into safer investments towards the end of a saver’s career as a safeguard against being wiped out with no time to recover before retirement). What this does though is pull demand away from long, “safe”, investments and push it towards higher risk, higher (potential) reward investments. This, in turn, pushes the price of longer dated investments up as they try to compete.

So we end up with an extremely volatile situation of people’s livelihoods being dependent on risky investments and the safeguard of long dated government bonds becoming so much more expensive that the Government starts cutting public services – including those that retired people rely on.

It doesn’t even make us any richer! Pensioner poverty rates have been static for the past 20 years and the rest of us face a future of having neither enough savings nor even enough capital wealth from inflated house prices to sustain ourselves. The only people who got rich from this shift in pension cultures are the folk who took commissions from the defined contribution schemes (until very recently, the UK had some of the most expensive pension fund management fees in the developed world and still has issues with things like high cost and complexity of moving your savings for ethical or financial reasons).

A better way would be to be a bit more Canadian. To bring Scottish workplace pensions into public hands and have them invest in Scottish infrastructure (either directly – though that Canadian scheme is apparently not the best landlord when it comes to the homes it directly owns – or through vehicles like the Scottish National Investment Bank).

The economy needs to be rebalanced towards patience and long-term security rather than grabbing a quick buck and trying to not drop it. An economy that puts “Me First” apparently works for almost no-one. An economy that puts “All of Us First” is one that will work for everyone.