Strangled By The Purse Strings

“It’s clearly a budget. It’s got lots of numbers in it.” – George W. Bush

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Eyes are on the UK Budget at the moment, and for good reason, but shortly after that we’re going to see what the Scottish Government lays out in its own budget and, given the scope of devolution, that is likely to have much more of an impact on Scottish public services – especially at a local level.

This means that recent news from Shona Robison telling Local Authorities that there’s “no money left” for public sector pay deals should be taken as a threat to local democratic autonomy.

Usually when I write an article like this I start by saying “imagine if Westminster treated Holyrood like this” but in this case I don’t really need to as we have the example of the UK Government’s cut to Winter Fuel Payments in England having a knock-on effect on the Block Grant which put Holyrood in the position of making the choice on whether to cut the equivalent Scottish allowance too. They didn’t have to – the Block Grant is calculated based on how Westminster spends money in England but Scotland is free to spend that Grant as it likes, not just on equivalent policies. In this case though, they did indeed choose to cut the payments.

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Scotland’s Population

“Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.” – Carl Sagan

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Every year the National Records of Scotland produces an annual population estimate for the nation. While not quite as comprehensive as the once-per-decade census (at least, when the census isn’t marred by the problems of the 2022 Scottish census), it provides a good rolling picture of Scotland’s population both at a national level and at a more local level both on the scale of Local Authorities and per NHS Health Boards (the latter being important for the allocation of healthcare budgets and is gathered because one of the tools used to estimate population change is the number of people who present to the NHS with an illness or injury in a given year). Indeed, a report was published in March comparing the rolling mid-year estimate to the 2022 census and found that the estimate was within around 1% of the census value (which is a fair bit more precise than, say, the 3.4% margin of uncertainty in the revenue estimates in GERS).

The headline figure you’ll have gathered from the news is that Scotland’s population is growing faster than it has since the end of the Second World War (itself a statistical glitch as many thousands of soldiers returning all at once tended to bump the numbers) and that the growth rate is being driven by immigration to Scotland.
I fully expect that line to get more negative attention than it should given the rabidly anti-migrant stance that the UK is rapidly slipping down, driven by increasingly extreme social media cesspits – certainly a view backed up by the fight going on in the comments section of the BBC article reporting on the new figures – so it’s worth doing the thing I often do with reports like this and taking a dip beneath the headlines for a more detailed and nuanced view of Scotland’s changing demographics.

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The Sun Still Has Not Set

“You can’t have occupation and human rights.” – Christopher Hitchens

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I threw out this week’s planned newsletter (a defence of the Tourist Levy) in response to some breaking news on Thursday morning that concerns a story that I’ve been following for some years (albeit very much from the farthest fringes of the outside).

The UK, after many years of arguing against an international consensus that campaigned against their illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing of the Chagos Islands, has agreed to hand sovereignty of the islands back to Mauritius who were stripped of the territories when they won their independence from the UK in 1968.

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Ageing For Indy?

“The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.” – Robert Frost

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I’m writing this on the 18th of September 2024. Ten years on from the independence referendum is a day of sober reflection. I certainly have a lot of memories of that day in particular as I spent it under a warm blue sky (much like today, though not quite as warm) going door-to-door to get out the vote amongst folk our campaign group, Yes Clydesdale, had identified as likely to vote Yes. The shattering of my hope was still several hours away, the grief of the following days and the determination to get back on my feet again was a little further away again. I remember many of my conversations that day but two stick out in particular right now.

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PfG 2024 – Serving Scotland

“When the dispute over the Means Test was in progress there was a disgusting public wrangle about the minimum weekly sum on which a human being could keep alive.” – George Orwell

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Serving Scotland, what exactly?

The Scottish Government’s latest Programme for Government, titled “Serving Scotland”, is little more than a list of platitudes covering some of the most brutal public service cuts in years coupled with a paring back of all sense of ambition in what should be a critical year of laying groundwork for the next election (if you take a short-termist political party view of things) or the rapid ramping up of actions to halt and mitigate climate change (if you’d prefer there to be a liveable biosphere in the next couple of generations).

The PfG is divided into four of the Government’s overarching strategies so it’s worth picking them apart one by one.

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How Not To Dispose Of Disposable Cups

If it can’t be reduced –
If it can’t be reduced
Reused, repaired – REUSED REPAIRED
Rebuilt, refurbished, refinished, resold
Recycled or composted – OR COMPOSTED
Then it should be – THEN IT SHOULD BE
Restricted, redesigned – RESTRICTED
REDESIGNED or removed – REMOVED!
From production – FROM PRODUCTION
Pete Seeger

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The Scottish Government still doesn’t understand what a Circular Economy is or how to bring the public with them as they implement it. This has been made clear by their latest ad hoc and misjudged approach to dealing with disposable cups. Their consultation on the levy has been launched here and Common Weal will get our response in in due course, please make sure your voice is heard too.

The proposal shouldn’t be as contentious as this and I should shouldn’t be on the side of fighting it – especially as I both agree with and support the goal behind the policy; to reduce resource use and waste produced by our single-use consumerism.

The policy as it stands, a 25p levy on disposable cups purchased as part of a takeaway drinks order, though risks seeing people as consumers to be punished into doing the “right thing” even as producers are allowed to make it impossible to make the right choice.

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GDP Growth Is The Problem, Not The Solution

“No society can surely be flourishing and happy of which by far the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable. ” – Adam Smith

This blog post previously appeared in The National, for which I received a commission.

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(Image Source: Unsplash)

Ahead of the reopening of the UK Parliament next week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer painted a bleak picture of a broken Britain that he plans to break further so that he can mend it in the service of his “number one priority”, GDP growth and “wealth creation”. He’s going to ask us to accept “short term pain, for long term good”.

If that sounds like a promise you’ve heard before then you are, like me, old enough to remember George Osborne making a very similar promise in 2010 when he kicked off the decade and a half of Conservative Austerity that we’ve endured ever since.

The big difference between then and now, of course, is that more Labour pain is coming on top of that previous Conservative pain so it’s little wonder that many are asking how much more we need to bear.
There were very few actual policies – and fewer new ones – in Starmer’s speech and those that were there are doing a lot more heavy lifting than he’s likely to let on. GB Energy, which he mentioned several times, is going to be miniscule. With only £8 billion worth of funding, it wouldn’t be big enough to renationalise the energy sector enough to make a difference. It might be one of the best public energy schemes the UK has seen since the Scottish Government dropped their plans for a public energy company, but it’s almost being deliberately designed to NOT disrupt the energy market that has been largely responsible for the inflation and cost of living crises of the past few years.

If Starmer wants to actually get to the root of the problem, to actually plan long term for the benefit of the UK and everyone who lives here then he needs to understand that a good chunk of that root is, in fact, his number one priority – chasing after GDP growth and “wealth creation”. GDP has been growing for decades without solving our economic problems so we need to ask if it is the solution, how much more does it need to grow before it starts working?

It’s not the solution because whenever GDP growth has occurred, the benefits of its have almost always gone mostly to the already wealthy. It has also almost always resulted in more damage to the environment. A long-term beneficial economy is one that focuses on sustainability and wellbeing instead and regardless of growth. Britain needs fewer prisoners, not more prisons. Fewer shops and more libraries (a policy that would improve wellbeing while actively shrinking GDP). And we need fewer of us working to barely meet our needs while we enrich others, and more from the already rich using their ability to do more to make it all happen. A smarter man than myself said something similar once. I don’t think he’d be too welcome in Starmer’s Labour party these days. That, too, is probably part of the problem.

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The Devolution Deficit

“Humanity’s true moral test, its fundamental test…consists of its attitude towards those who are at its mercy” – Milan Kundera

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Despite plenty of warning before the elections, new Chancellor Rachel Reeves has suddenly discovered a massive “hidden” black hole in the UK’s finances and she needs to make “difficult choices” to fix it. This is hardly to excuse the last 14 years of Conservative rule – it’s not as if they made a particular secret about their attempts to hollow the nation out for their own benefit – but as Robin has explained, political figures never seem to make “difficult choices” that would make things difficult for those who can afford it.

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Actions for Peace

“Just war theory has been converted into a form of apologetics for whatever atrocities your favored state is carrying out.” – Noam Chomsky

This blog post previously appeared as an article in Secure Scotland‘s Whit Noo? magazine, for which I received a commission.

Peace

People sometimes mistake pacifism for inaction when it is the very opposite. To choose and to strive for peace is just as affirmative an action as to choose and to strive for violence. It is not something that happens due to the absence of violence or because we are protected by violence from some threat outwith or within. I write these words on the 14th of July 2024. The day after an attempted act of horrific violence against Donald Trump – a person with whom I share little in terms of worldview or aspirations and yet he is a person who, as with all people, I do not wish the harm he received nor the harm he very narrowly avoided and which some others that day sadly did not.

This essay is not about those events nor the events that led to them nor those that shall follow from them other than to say that my mantra that we should all strive always for peace is very much at the top of my mind as I write.

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Vote Dalȝell for Lord Provost! (Please Don’t!)

“Dictators are not in the business of allowing elections that could remove them from their thrones.” – Gene Sharp

This blog post is an extended edition of an article that previously appeared in The National as part of Common Weal’s In Common newsletter.
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How would you feel if I, personally, had total control over the strategic direction of several key areas of public services that affect you? The odds of me being able to make a successful bid to win election as a Scottish “metro mayor” if they are introduced up here are not zero. I’ve been in politics long enough to have become well known at least in political circles, I have a few friends and hopefully not many more enemies. And though I’m not a member of a political party, I do get asked by several of them if I’d be willing to join and even if I didn’t, a run as an independent candidate wouldn’t be impossible. It’s even possible that you’d like some of my policies.

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