Scotland’s Population

“Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.” – Carl Sagan

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Every year the National Records of Scotland produces an annual population estimate for the nation. While not quite as comprehensive as the once-per-decade census (at least, when the census isn’t marred by the problems of the 2022 Scottish census), it provides a good rolling picture of Scotland’s population both at a national level and at a more local level both on the scale of Local Authorities and per NHS Health Boards (the latter being important for the allocation of healthcare budgets and is gathered because one of the tools used to estimate population change is the number of people who present to the NHS with an illness or injury in a given year). Indeed, a report was published in March comparing the rolling mid-year estimate to the 2022 census and found that the estimate was within around 1% of the census value (which is a fair bit more precise than, say, the 3.4% margin of uncertainty in the revenue estimates in GERS).

The headline figure you’ll have gathered from the news is that Scotland’s population is growing faster than it has since the end of the Second World War (itself a statistical glitch as many thousands of soldiers returning all at once tended to bump the numbers) and that the growth rate is being driven by immigration to Scotland.
I fully expect that line to get more negative attention than it should given the rabidly anti-migrant stance that the UK is rapidly slipping down, driven by increasingly extreme social media cesspits – certainly a view backed up by the fight going on in the comments section of the BBC article reporting on the new figures – so it’s worth doing the thing I often do with reports like this and taking a dip beneath the headlines for a more detailed and nuanced view of Scotland’s changing demographics.

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We Support An NCS – But Not Like This

“It’s easy for common people to say what they think about the government. No one listens to them.” – Ljupka Cvetanova

This blog post previously appeared in The National as part of Common Weal’s In Common newsletter.
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So NOW the Scottish Government wants to talk?

In the wake of Cosla withdrawing their support for the National Care Service Bill, the Scottish Government has called for talks to resolve the dispute and to help get their flawed Bill across the line.

The problem is that there’s very little trust left among stakeholders in the care bill – including campaigners like Common Weal. We sympathise with Cosla who were placed in a very difficult position right from the start. Common Weal cannot support the Bill in its current form, or even if the Scottish Government’s proposed Stage 2 amendments pass as they currently are. We, too, are forced to say now that the Bill needs to be massively overhauled or killed and started again.

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The Sun Still Has Not Set

“You can’t have occupation and human rights.” – Christopher Hitchens

This blog post previously appeared in Common Weal’s weekly newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter here.
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I threw out this week’s planned newsletter (a defence of the Tourist Levy) in response to some breaking news on Thursday morning that concerns a story that I’ve been following for some years (albeit very much from the farthest fringes of the outside).

The UK, after many years of arguing against an international consensus that campaigned against their illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing of the Chagos Islands, has agreed to hand sovereignty of the islands back to Mauritius who were stripped of the territories when they won their independence from the UK in 1968.

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September in Common Weal

“This is what ultimately matters: where you end up, not the speed at which you get there, or the number of people you impress with your jittery busyness along the way.” – Cal Newport

This blog post previously appeared in Common Weal’s weekly newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter here.

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Common Weal is one of Scotland’s most prolific think tanks, especially given our size and shoestring budget (you can help us by throwing us a few more shoestrings here). Since I’ve been a part of the team here we’ve had a target of releasing around one publication per month but every year we completely blow past that target. This year is looking like it’ll be no different, especially given that this month we’re publishing FOUR papers for your reading pleasure. This is a testament to our expert working groups – our stalwart teams of some of the best minds in Scotland who volunteer far more of their time than we have any right to ask for to help produce this work. They really have been the model to follow and one that I hope to spend next year developing in a replicable way.

Of course, both of the groups who did the work I want to talk about this week themselves work in very different ways – our Care Reform Group have met via Zoom almost every week for almost four years now whereas our Energy Group function more as an email forum who form ad hoc cells of specialists when they want to talk about a specific topic (such as National Grid transmission or heating Scottish homes). In both cases, they’ve acted as ambassadors to other stakeholders in their respective fields and the result is that it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the Scottish Government to talk to anyone without encountering our ideas whether they want to or not. I’m immensely grateful for everything our Groups do for us and for the way that they’ve helped make Scotland a better place for All of Us.

As to the papers themselves, since there are so many of them this week, I thought I’d use my newsletter column to give you a quick summary of them and point you to them if you want to read more.

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Ageing For Indy?

“The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.” – Robert Frost

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I’m writing this on the 18th of September 2024. Ten years on from the independence referendum is a day of sober reflection. I certainly have a lot of memories of that day in particular as I spent it under a warm blue sky (much like today, though not quite as warm) going door-to-door to get out the vote amongst folk our campaign group, Yes Clydesdale, had identified as likely to vote Yes. The shattering of my hope was still several hours away, the grief of the following days and the determination to get back on my feet again was a little further away again. I remember many of my conversations that day but two stick out in particular right now.

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Why We Tax Houses

“Money, says the proverb, makes money. When you have got a little, it is often easy to get more. The great difficulty is to get that little.” – Adam Smith

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The past couple of weeks have been incredibly busy with some unprecedented levels of media attention pointing at Common Weal now. As much as I loathe to blow my own trumpet, I ended up appearing in The National five days in a row on various topics like local democracy, ScotWind and our local Property and Land Tax proposals (You can read all of those articles here: 12345).

By far the most feedback came from the latter articles on reforming Council Tax (Have you seen our new short video explainers popping up on social media about this and other topics? If so, what do you think of them?) and extending it into land to create a comprehensive Property Tax that would cut taxes for the vast majority of households and bring in over £1 billion a year in new revenue for Scottish Local Authorities.

Of course, not all of the feedback has been entirely positive but much of the rest has been around asking genuine questions about the policy so I thought I’d take the time in my column this week to answer some of them.

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PfG 2024 – Serving Scotland

“When the dispute over the Means Test was in progress there was a disgusting public wrangle about the minimum weekly sum on which a human being could keep alive.” – George Orwell

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Serving Scotland, what exactly?

The Scottish Government’s latest Programme for Government, titled “Serving Scotland”, is little more than a list of platitudes covering some of the most brutal public service cuts in years coupled with a paring back of all sense of ambition in what should be a critical year of laying groundwork for the next election (if you take a short-termist political party view of things) or the rapid ramping up of actions to halt and mitigate climate change (if you’d prefer there to be a liveable biosphere in the next couple of generations).

The PfG is divided into four of the Government’s overarching strategies so it’s worth picking them apart one by one.

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It’s Time To Tax Scottish Land

“All I wish to make clear is that, without any increase in population, the progress of invention constantly tends to give a larger proportion of the produce to the owners of land, and a smaller and smaller proportion to labor and capital.” – Henry George

This blog post previously appeared in The National as part of Common Weal’s In Common newsletter.
If you’d like to throw me a wee tip to support this blog, you can here.

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Last week, I had the pleasure to address SNP members at the Revive Coalition’s fringe meeting on land reform where I presented Common Weal’s proposal to bring a land tax to Scotland. As the meeting wasn’t filmed, I want to discuss the issue here for the benefit of members (and non-members) who couldn’t be there. I am also delighted that after our fringe, members gave overwhelming support to two motions that would enable such a tax. Taxing land in Scotland is now solidly SNP policy and the Scottish Government should bring forward a Bill to enable it at the earliest opportunity. With the Scottish Government pledging to bring in fresh cuts of in excess of £500 million, to ignore a tool that would almost entirely avoid the need for them is simply unacceptable.

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How Not To Dispose Of Disposable Cups

If it can’t be reduced –
If it can’t be reduced
Reused, repaired – REUSED REPAIRED
Rebuilt, refurbished, refinished, resold
Recycled or composted – OR COMPOSTED
Then it should be – THEN IT SHOULD BE
Restricted, redesigned – RESTRICTED
REDESIGNED or removed – REMOVED!
From production – FROM PRODUCTION
Pete Seeger

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The Scottish Government still doesn’t understand what a Circular Economy is or how to bring the public with them as they implement it. This has been made clear by their latest ad hoc and misjudged approach to dealing with disposable cups. Their consultation on the levy has been launched here and Common Weal will get our response in in due course, please make sure your voice is heard too.

The proposal shouldn’t be as contentious as this and I should shouldn’t be on the side of fighting it – especially as I both agree with and support the goal behind the policy; to reduce resource use and waste produced by our single-use consumerism.

The policy as it stands, a 25p levy on disposable cups purchased as part of a takeaway drinks order, though risks seeing people as consumers to be punished into doing the “right thing” even as producers are allowed to make it impossible to make the right choice.

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GDP Growth Is The Problem, Not The Solution

“No society can surely be flourishing and happy of which by far the greater part of the numbers are poor and miserable. ” – Adam Smith

This blog post previously appeared in The National, for which I received a commission.

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(Image Source: Unsplash)

Ahead of the reopening of the UK Parliament next week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer painted a bleak picture of a broken Britain that he plans to break further so that he can mend it in the service of his “number one priority”, GDP growth and “wealth creation”. He’s going to ask us to accept “short term pain, for long term good”.

If that sounds like a promise you’ve heard before then you are, like me, old enough to remember George Osborne making a very similar promise in 2010 when he kicked off the decade and a half of Conservative Austerity that we’ve endured ever since.

The big difference between then and now, of course, is that more Labour pain is coming on top of that previous Conservative pain so it’s little wonder that many are asking how much more we need to bear.
There were very few actual policies – and fewer new ones – in Starmer’s speech and those that were there are doing a lot more heavy lifting than he’s likely to let on. GB Energy, which he mentioned several times, is going to be miniscule. With only £8 billion worth of funding, it wouldn’t be big enough to renationalise the energy sector enough to make a difference. It might be one of the best public energy schemes the UK has seen since the Scottish Government dropped their plans for a public energy company, but it’s almost being deliberately designed to NOT disrupt the energy market that has been largely responsible for the inflation and cost of living crises of the past few years.

If Starmer wants to actually get to the root of the problem, to actually plan long term for the benefit of the UK and everyone who lives here then he needs to understand that a good chunk of that root is, in fact, his number one priority – chasing after GDP growth and “wealth creation”. GDP has been growing for decades without solving our economic problems so we need to ask if it is the solution, how much more does it need to grow before it starts working?

It’s not the solution because whenever GDP growth has occurred, the benefits of its have almost always gone mostly to the already wealthy. It has also almost always resulted in more damage to the environment. A long-term beneficial economy is one that focuses on sustainability and wellbeing instead and regardless of growth. Britain needs fewer prisoners, not more prisons. Fewer shops and more libraries (a policy that would improve wellbeing while actively shrinking GDP). And we need fewer of us working to barely meet our needs while we enrich others, and more from the already rich using their ability to do more to make it all happen. A smarter man than myself said something similar once. I don’t think he’d be too welcome in Starmer’s Labour party these days. That, too, is probably part of the problem.

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