Now that the polls have closed and we’ve got that agonising wait till we either crash out watching the TV pundits searching for anything to say or the results actually start coming in, I thought I’d throw out some completely informal, mostly gutfeel-based predictions of the numbers of seats won by each party.
Excellent Result: 1 – FPTP works against us so badly that, and I hope I won’t upset too many by saying this, it’ll be a minor miracle if any seats are won. Especially with the pro-SNP tide surging through the nation.
Good result: 0, but more votes than Lib Dems and/or UKIP. – This would stand us in good stead to become a major player in the Holyrood campaign next year.
Poor Result: 0, with reduced vote share from last year. – Ah well, at least there’s nothing to lose right?
My Prediction: 0 – Not sure I can speculate on vote share until we see any indication of Greens “lending their votes” to the SNP or just how badly some of the Unionist parties actually do. Here’s hoping for a good enough platform to boost us next year though.
Excellent Result: 41+ – Taking over Labour’s former seat total would undoubtedly signal the depth of change in this nation and would put the Nationalists in a prime position to lead a progressive alliance into any post-vote negotiations….or enough to lead to rightful fury if they are locked out by the Unionist parties. I’ll believe the poll projections of 50 seats+ when I see the results. Such a result, especially combined with high profile scalps such as Murphy, Alexander, Carmichael and Mundell, simply is beyond any kind of precedent.
Good Result: 31 – More than half of Scotland’s seats would still give the SNP the ability to call themselves the “Party of Scotland” and may still be enough to command attention from the morning onwards, especially if UKIP and the Lib Dems do particularly poorly.
Poor Result: <20 – Even though this would still be a historic high for the party, and could be celebrated as such, this result would be touted in the media as a “miracle comeback” for Murphy and may lead to an insufficiency of seats to swing any negotiations. Labour, if it didn’t have an outright majority, would almost certainly be able to lock out the Progressives of the SNP, Greens and Plaid and go into coalition with the Lib Dems and possibly the SDLP.
My Prediction: 45 – Quite possibly a little on the high side but there’s a bit of symbolism to that number and I like that kind of thing.
Excellent Result: 31 – For the same reason as above, Labour could go on saying “Scotland voted for us” and Murphy would keep his job. Then they could go back to the very important job of pretending Scotland doesn’t exist.
Good Result: 20 – Again, the high polls of late have put Labour in the position of being able to claim anything above absolute disaster as a victory. Getting out of the teens will be played up by their media machine to as great an effect as they could.
Poor Result: 6 – Another symbolic number I guess. Possibly just enough to save Murphy himself and a couple of the others whom have been the benefactors of their Target to Hold campaign. It would be a courageous Labour leader who ever again attempted to parachute a potential Minister into a Scottish seat.
My Prediction: 12 – I just cannot believe the insanely high polls till the votes are counted but, quite frankly, if Labour’s absolute disaster of a campaign actually helps save more than a dozen seats then we, on the pro-independence side of things, only have ourselves to blame.
Excellent Result: 4 – The projected number of seats based on a 15% vote share. This would allow the Lib Dems, marginally…maybe, to continue to be a party a little more popular in Scotland than the Tories. That’s got to be worth something.
Good Result: 1 – With Alistair Carmichael clinging on up in the islands Clegg could still technically continue to claim representation North of The Wall.
Poor Result: 0 – Total Wipeout? Even Orkney and Shetland? Surely such a thing would be as significant a moment as the elections of Keir Hardie or Winnie Ewing?
My Prediction: 1 – It’ll be a lonely boat ride for Ali. I’ll pen a shanty for him to sing.
Excellent Result: 2 – Moore may be looking for his coat but Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is looking micht shoogly. Someone had better step up the panda breeding program!
Good Result: 1 – Mundell, I’m sure, will be quite happy to settle back into his beloved public toilet for another five years. Maybe someone in Biggar should stick a plaque up to rename it the Scotland Office.
Poor Result: 0 – Scotland once again a Tory Free Zone (well….except for roughly 1 in 10 of the voting population locked out by FPTP…)? That’ll make things interesting if Cameron somehow clings on down south.
My Prediction: 0 – Let the rage and rejoicing commence!
Excellent Result: 1 – Surely not! How anyone could vote for Coburn and his happy endorsement of slashing Scotland’s funding by £5 billion is utterly beyond me. Even a single issue, anti-immigration voter can’t possibly be THAT malanthropic.
Good Result: 0, but with a similar vote share to the UK-wide result – This would allow them to claim that Scotland isn’t all that different from down south.
Poor Result: 0, with fewer votes than the Lib Dems – It’s a race to the bottom that no-one wants to win!
My Prediction: 0 – I think enough of us got a shock in the EU elections and I’m guessing that most Unionist voters wouldn’t consider them even for a tactical vote. Last orders.
The astute will notice that my predictions come out one seat short. We’ll call that one our wildcard, shall we? Who do you think is most likely to pick it up?